1). Mid- to low-level negative (positive) geopotential height anomalies (Fig. Xie et al. Zimbabwe and other regional countries are on high alert for a tropical cyclone building up in the Mozambican Channel which is expected to cause flooding in parts of the country. To see whether this suggested relationship might also hold true for Eline, plots of subsurface ocean temperature were constructed from Estimating the Circulation and Climate of the Ocean (ECCO) model analyses (Stammer et al. These operational centers reported that the forecasts generally had a left-of-observed-track and fast bias. Relatively strong midlevel easterlies (Figs. 2003). Cyclone Idai hit Zimbabwe during the weekend of 15–17 March 2019, bringing heavy rains and strong winds that triggered flooding and landslides. van Heerden, J., , and Taljaard J. J. , 1988: Africa and surrounding waters. At 200 hPa (not shown), positive anomalies and divergence existed over the eastern/central tropical south Indian Ocean during the 2 weeks before Eline reached 90°E on 8 February. About 25–40 mm fell over southeastern Namibia on 1 March as the convective activity began to shift eastward with the westerly migration of the cloud band and the subsequent ridging of the next South Atlantic anticyclone behind the front. display: flex; 0000000947 00000 n During the 3 days following Eline's landfall on 22 February, stations near the interior escarpment of northeastern South Africa received rainfall of 400–550 mm (about 3 times the February mean), whereas the Eta model totals for this time were about 100–150 mm. These events can be chronicled from the 2000 Cyclone Eline that caused 91 The government has declared a state of disaster in areas affected by the cyclone, the worst to hit the country since Cyclone It is difficult to make assessments of forecast accuracy over the mainland since, with the exception of South Africa (SAWB), the forecasts are not archived by the various countries and verification data are not available. A strong ridge of high pressure extending to midlevels was in existence across eastern South Africa and the neighboring SWIO throughout 14–24 February (Figs. The last major cyclone to reach Zimbabwe, Cyclone Idai in March last year, hit Chimanimani. Thus, conditions over the landmass were, together with those of the south Indian Ocean, very favorable for Eline's intensification near Mozambique and penetration 2000 km inland. Less well known is that one of the weather systems that contributed to these floods (ex-Tropical Cyclone Eline) … The 1200 UTC bulletin advised that widespread rain was expected over northeastern South Africa with a few heavy falls over the northern escarpment within the next 12–24 h. At 0200 UTC 23 February, the SAWB issued a warning for heavy rains in the far north of the country and highlighted the fact that ex-Eline was moving farther inland. These pressure anomalies and the resulting enhanced easterlies or westward steering flow along 15°–25°S and cyclonic shear equatorward of this zonal band were, together with the SST conditions, very conducive for the generation and subsequent westward track of Eline. Xie, S-P., , Annamalai H. , , Schott F. A. , , and McCreary J. P. , 2002: Structure and mechanisms of south Indian Ocean climate variability. SST anomalies during early 2000 were similar to the composite with the important exception of warm SST anomalies in both the Mozambique Channel and north and northeast of Madagascar (Figs. In fact, over 500 mm fell at some stations during 22–25 February. Reynolds optimally interpolated SST and TRMM SST data both indicate that during the week prior to Eline, SST in the Mozambique Channel was somewhat warmer (29°– 30°C) than that east of Madagascar (about 28°C) in the latitude band corresponding to its track (Fig. Jury, M. R., 1993: A preliminary study of climatological associations and characteristics of tropical cyclones in the SW Indian Ocean. During La Niña, TC tracks in the tropical south Indian Ocean are relatively spread out, with more occurring in the Mozambique Channel. The cyclonic feature over northern Namibia– southern Angola is more focused and slightly stronger than that for pentad 1, with increased flux from the SWIO compared to the mean flow. Zimbabwe and Malawi. This delay further aggravated the effects of this extreme event. Flood producing weather systems: Tropical cyclones. Forecasters could have recognized these at the time as indicating the likelihood of significant impacts of Eline over southern Africa. We thank Dr. Warren Tennant, SAWS, for helpful discussions. Mean CT errors were 76, 118, and 144 km for the UKMO 24-, 48-, and 72-h forecasts, and 80 and 133 km for the La Réunion 24- and 48-h forecasts. background: #ddd; At 1000 UTC 24 February, a warning for very heavy rain over northeastern South Africa and flooding near rivers and dams was issued with moderate rain likely over the next 2 days. 0000035290 00000 n As a result of Eline and a tropical depression in early February, this region received very heavy rainfall with flooding. Dr. Beenay Pathack, Mauritius Meteorological Services, provided Fig. A study of climate and weather variability over the tropical southwest Indian Ocean. Whether or not Namibian forecasters issued warnings is unknown; however, the public were able to access SAWB forecasts via the media. Jury, M. R., , Pathack B. , , and Parker B. , 1999: Climatic determinants and statistical prediction of tropical cyclone days in the southwest Indian Ocean. Kirkia (2002) 18(1): 63-71 TREE DAMAGE BY CYCLONE ELI NE IN THE BUNGA FOREST, ZIMBABWE R.M. In fact, the westward track of Eline across the Mozambique Channel corresponded to the tongue of warmest SST between Madagascar and the mainland evident in Fig. This was Eline's second landfall; it crossed the island of Madagascar on 17/18 February where wind gusts of up to 250 km h−1 were recorded on the east coast at Mahanoro. }. 1998). Reason, C. J. C., , Allan R. J. , , Lindesay J. Flood Risk Reduction Measures, W. J. R. Alexander, Ed., University of Pretoria, 23–34. 9b,c). 8a) looks similar over southern Africa to the summer climatology except that there was enhanced convergence over northern Namibia–southeastern Angola. Six hours prior to landfall, Eline became an intense tropical cyclone just 45 km from the Mozambique coast. In particular, we focus on possible influences from the prolonged 1998–2001 La Niña on the evolution of TC Eline. This scenario was adjusted in three subsequent forecasts issued between 0000 and 1200 UTC 17 February, which correctly predicted a slight intensification and more northwestward track to the system. Cyclone Idai, which devastated Zimbabwe’s eastern border districts of Chimanimani and Chipinge in mid March after drowning Mozambique’s second largest city of Beira, has been described by the United Nations’ World Food Programme (WFP) Executive Director David Beasley as the biggest natural disaster to hit the region in living memory. Need to review Zim disaster response, preparedness – NewsDay … Meteor. Due to the huge damage and loss of life, global media attention was extensive. In fact, rapid strengthening occurred during the next 6 h, prompting a hurricane warning to be issued at 1200 UTC with expected landfall within the next 12–24 h. Six hours prior to landfall, Eline became an intense tropical cyclone just 45 km from the Mozambique coast. Due to the huge damage and loss of life, global media attention was extensive. During 16–20 February, when southern Namibia had its first major wet spell of the season, the low-level moisture flux (Fig. The previous major cyclone, Cyclone Eline of February 2000, had a slightly different track but still coming in through the central Eastern Highlands and then moving right across Zimbabwe weakening as it did so and finally reaching Namibia as a minor depression. Cyclone Idai triggered floods in With the exception of Jury and Pathack (1991), Jury (1993), and Jury et al. The model only simulated over 200 mm in a very small area in the low-lying region near the Mozambique border, and the model-predicted region of heavy rainfall did not extend far enough west into northern South Africa. In view of increasing cyclonic activity in the Indian Ocean, nations in southern Africa should prepare well for flood-related disasters. 0000007011 00000 n During January and February 2000, this isotherm was more zonal in orientation across the south Indian Ocean, yet another important aspect of the SST field in early summer 2000 that influenced Eline's track westward into the southern African mainland. Third, easterly winds at 500 hPa of about 10 m s−1 associated with the northern half of the ridge occurred in the southern Mozambique Channel and neighboring SWIO, and acted as a steering current toward and across southern Africa during 14– 28 February (Fig. Two important statistics are the mean position errors in the along-track (AT) and cross-track (CT) directions. Both La Réunion (RSMC La Réunion 2002) and the UKMO (Heming 1994, 2001) provide basic information about forecast errors. At the same time, the anticyclone in the SWIO strengthened, leading to northeasterly flow of moist air at low levels over eastern South Africa and further development of the heat low to the south (Figs. La Niña conditions strengthened again during early 2000 after a lull in mid-1999 and warm SST anomalies evolved near Mozambique (Fig. Cyclone Idai, which devastated Zimbabwe’s eastern border districts of Chimanimani and Chipinge in mid March after drowning Mozambique’s second largest city of Beira, has been described by the United Nations’ World Food Programme (WFP) Executive Director David Beasley as the biggest natural disaster to hit the region in living memory. Contour interval in (a) is 1 dam and in (b) is 0.5 dam. This tropical trough evolved ahead of a cold front approaching the far southwest coast from the South Atlantic, and these two systems formed a tropical–extratropical cloud band on 29 February and 1 March (Fig. J. Geophys. While crossing the Mozambique, Idai weakened to a tropical storm and entered Zimbabwe. Pentads are used to focus on the moisture flux during the evolution of the event and to remove diurnal convective effects. However, the intensity of the system was underforecast during this period, and the forward track speed was overforecast. opacity: 1; Keeping an eye on the hurricane—Verification of tropical cyclone forecast tracks at the Met Office. 10) were also present in the tropical (subtropical and midlatitude) south Indian Ocean. The large-scale influences on the highly unusual track of Eline are considered in section 3, including that of SWIO sea surface temperature (SST) via Reynolds optimally interpolated (OI) (Reynolds and Smith 1994) and Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) (Kummerow et al. Meteorology of the Southern Hemisphere, D. J. Karoly and D. G. Vincent, Eds., Amer. Volume, heat and freshwater transports of the global ocean circulation 1993–2000, estimated from a general circulation model constrained by World Ocean Circulation Experiment (WOCE) data. Natl. Zimbabwe, like its neighbours Mozambique and Malawi, is reeling from the effects of Cyclone Idai, which caused loss of lives and left a trail of destruction. February–March 2000 saw devastating floods in Mozambique, Zimbabwe, and South Africa. Note that Fig. Geogr, 21 , 23–50. Oceanic Technol, 15 , 809–817. The most affected areas are Bikita, Chimanimani, Chipinge, Chiredzi, Gutu, Buhera and Zaka. 0000030678 00000 n 9a, and maxima of 31°–32°C occurred in the eastern part of the channel. In fact, the strongest recorded gust (137 km h−1) occurred in northwest Mauritius a few hours later at noon LT. Two other stations also recorded wind gusts over 100 km h−1 during the late morning of February 15 after the “no warning” signal had been issued. 6c) as ex-Eline and the heat low merged into a large trough extending across Namibia down to the South African coast (Fig. J. La Réunion issued storm and gale warnings well after the storm had tracked inland from the coast and out of their area of responsibility; these were used by the Mozambique and South African forecast offices, which issued warnings during 22–25 February. Track of Eline across the south Indian Ocean and southern African mainland with its position marked at 0400 and 1600 LT during the 3 Feb–1 Mar 2000 period. Atmos. Convection over Namibia was weaker than a day or so previously as a result of subsidence from the outflow ahead of Eline. https://www.chronicle.co.zw/cyclone-to-hit-southern-zimbabwe The Eta model horizontal resolution is a uniform 0.5°, so it does not capture local vegetation gradients between the Kruger National Park (savanna) and neighboring farms (mainly fruit, sugar, and cattle) and pine or eucalyptus plantations, or orographic details. Besides limited NWP capability in southern Africa, another serious difficulty facing forecasters is a lack of weather radars and radiosondes, and ongoing reductions in their availability. 5f–h) existed over the region from Botswana east to the SWIO during 24–29 February, thereby continuing to steer the storm westward to Namibia. 4b–g, 6b,d). In February 2000, only Irene did two ascents per day (0000 and 1200 UTC), while only the 0000 UTC ascent was done at Pietersburg. J. Climatol, 20 , 1285–1327. 0000000871 00000 n The importance of this steering flow for enhancing the risk of SWIO TC making landfall on Mozambique is consistent with climatology and AGCM experiments (Vitart et al. It was the worst in half a century. padding: 0; Section 4 discusses regional forecasting of this event. The figure is reproduced courtesy of Mauritius Meteorological Services, which renamed the storm Eline after it crossed 90°E; prior to this it was identified as Tropical Storm Leon, (a) Meteosat infrared satellite image (obtained from NOAA) for 0630 UTC 22 Feb; (b) SAWB synoptic chart for 1200 UTC 22 Feb; (c) Meteosat infrared satellite image (obtained from NOAA) for 0630 UTC 23 Feb; (d) SAWB synoptic chart for 1200 UTC 23 Feb. (a)–(f) Daily averaged geopotential height (contour interval 1.5 dam) at the 500-hPa level from NCEP reanalyses for 18–24 Feb. Shading denotes values in the range 579–585 dam so as to highlight Tropical Cyclone Eline. Climate, 7 , 929–948. These challenges motivate strongly for innovative solutions, including developing better partnerships with universities, industry, and international operational agencies. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology, An Analysis of Subdaily Severe Thunderstorm Probabilities for the United States, Subseasonal Forecast Skill of Snow Water Equivalent and Its Link with Temperature in Selected SubX Models, Configuration of Statistical Postprocessing Techniques for Improved Low-Level Wind Speed Forecasts in West Texas, Topographic Rainfall of Tropical Cyclones past a Mountain Range as Categorized by Idealized Simulations, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0434(2004)019<0789:TCEAIU>2.0.CO;2, 10.1175/1520-0434(2004)019<0789:TCEAIU>2.0.CO;2. Source: How we can minimise future cyclone damage – NewsDay At 0600 UTC 22 February, the bulletin noted that the eye was on the Mozambique coast and forecast that Eline would track into Zimbabwe within 36–48 h. Instead, the system moved considerably faster than expected and reached eastern Zimbabwe within 12–18 h. The next three forecasts issued between 1200 UTC 22 February and 0000 UTC 23 February predicted a more rapid weakening of ex-Eline than was observed. For the UKMO model, the mean AT errors along Eline's track were 17, 94, and 152 km for the 24-, 48-, and 72-h forecasts, respectively. Climatic determinants and statistical prediction of tropical cyclone days in the southwest Indian Ocean. padding: 0; At least 172 deaths have been reported and 327 people are reportedly missing in Zimbabwe (OCHA, 27 March 2019). These authors present evidence that years with deeper-than-average thermocline depth in the 8°–12°S, 50°–70°E region tend to have more TC in the SWIO than those with shallower thermocline depths. ZIMBABWE is reportedly set to experience another tropical cyclone that will result in massive flooding, especially in Manicaland province. Digest, 22 , 25–36. Less known is that ex-Eline tracked about 2000 km across southern Africa toward the Atlantic (Fig. In fact, Eline seems to have followed the +60 W m−2 anomaly contour seen to extend from 80°E to Madagascar in Fig. (b) SST anomalies for Jan 2000. The UKMO errors in forecasting Leon–Eline were about average for SWIO storm forecasts for the previous season, and the model showed skill over CLIPER forecasts (Heming 2001). The track forecasts from La Réunion remained quite good during the 3 days that Eline was in the Mozambique Channel. 9b,c) where the composite displays cool anomalies. Cyclone Idai triggered floods in During 24–27 February, the storm moved over northeastern Botswana toward Namibia (Figs. Int. Andrew Singleton produced some of the figures. The 26 February– 1 March pentad (Fig. Local forecasters should be aware of the precursor synoptic conditions for TC landfall, the previous few months' rainfall, and the current state of the vegetation (and by inference, soil moisture), as well as regional SST anomalies, the orientation of the 28°C isotherm, and ENSO phase. Note that less than 5% of TCs occurring in the SWIO over the last 50 years have actually made landfall on the east coast of southern Africa. A preliminary study of climatological associations and characteristics of tropical cyclones in the SW Indian Ocean. Office Forecasting Research Tech. Wendy Nkuna and Tracey Gill, South African Weather Service (SAWS), provided information about forecasts issued by the then South African Weather Bureau. 9a, and these SSTs were above average for both January and February (Figs. La Réunion uses the ECMWF IFS model and the French ARPEGE model, for which a version with approximately 40-km uniform resolution has been fitted to oceanic tropical regions. 6d). 9b,c) in January and February, favoring storm genesis. Real-time advisory positions produced by La Réunion were used to verify observations of the location of the system. In this section, we consider the question as to whether the large-scale climatic and ocean conditions during austral summer 2000 also helped promote Eline's anomalous evolution. 11c. width: 100%; Large areas of southern Africa received one to two standard deviations above average rainfall in December 1999 and January 2000. Summary of tropical cyclone activity and forecasts in the 1999–2000 Southern Hemisphere season. De Coning, E., , Forbes G. S. , , and Poolman E. P. , 1998: Heavy precipitation and flooding on 12–14 February 1996 over the summer rainfall regions of South Africa: Synoptic and isentropic analyses. Four provinces at risk of cyclone Idai - NewZimbabwe.com – The … Reynolds, R. W., , and Smith T. M. , 1994: Improved global sea surface temperature analyses using optimal interpolation. Meteor. In 2000, Cyclone Eline devastated parts of the country, claiming 136 lives and destroying tens of thousands of houses. At 0400 UTC 29 February, the SAWB issued a heavy rain warning for central and southeast Namibia, timely given that this was the wettest day of the entire summer. Eline also killed 12 people in Zimbabwe and 21 people in South Africa. These forecasting challenges are particularly pronounced over Namibia, where the inherent atmospheric conditions add to the difficulties. } In Mozambique, an … 9), favoring local intensification and landfall of tropical systems. There are only four sounding stations along the roughly 3000 km of coastline in South Africa (Alexander Bay, Cape Town, Port Elizabeth, and Durban), and these now provide soundings only every 24 h instead of every 12 h. In northern South Africa, there are two stations, Irene (25.7°S, 28.2°E) and Pietersburg (23.9°S, 29.5°E), both of which try to make two ascents during summer. Given the relative lack of work on TCs in the region, it is important to investigate cases like Eline that have large rainfall impacts and unusual evolutions. This rainfall was about 70% of the average February precipitation total. The significant inflow of moisture from the subtropical SWIO and, to lesser extent, the tropical southeast Atlantic Ocean then combined with the trough in the westerlies south of Africa to promote the cloud band that occurred over southwestern Africa during 29 February–1 March. The 0200 and 0400 UTC 25 February bulletins repeated these warnings and noted that although the storm was weakening over Botswana and rainfall over northeastern South Africa should moderate, heavy rains should still be expected that day. 0000002084 00000 n From El Niño to La Niña: Vegetation response patterns over east and southern Africa during the 1997–2000 period. Later, Eline brought wind gusts of 76 km/h (47 mph) to St. Brandon. In addition, the seasonal atmospheric circulation and regional SST anomalies associated with the JFM 2000 strengthening of the protracted 1998–2001 La Niña episode produced very favorable conditions for this event. Hence, Eline regained tropical cyclone status on 21 February when it was located about 80% of the way across the channel (Fig. Like pentad 1, the cyclonic feature is not only intensified relative to the mean but also shifted south over Namibia, reflecting the presence of ex-Eline itself. In February 2000, Cyclone Eline hit central Mozambique after weeks of flooding, and their combined effects killed around 700 people and caused an estimated $500 million (USD) in damage. This marked the end of wet conditions over southern Namibia until the third and final significant rainfall event of summer 1999/2000 about a month later. Rep. 342, 14 pp. Climate, 16 , 3932–3945. Less known is that ex-Eline tracked about 2000 km across southern Africa toward the Atlantic (Fig. While crossing the Mozambique, Idai weakened to a tropical storm and entered Zimbabwe. height: 4px; 4a,b) helped sustain the landfalling Eline as it tracked farther west (e.g., Jury and Pathack 1991). Rep. 342, 14 pp. Prog. The wind speeds associated with south Indian Ocean storm categories are given in the legend. NCEP reanalyses indicate that most of central and western southern Africa had significant positive soil moisture anomalies in December 1999, and these wetter soil conditions intensified further in January 2000. Eline was the longest-lived tropical storm observed to date in the region. First, sea level pressure anomalies to the south of the Mozambique Channel were positive during January and February, indicating increased anticyclonic ridging south of Africa and unfavorable conditions for the southward track of tropical depressions. Structure and mechanisms of south Indian Ocean climate variability. Zimbabweans Still Recovering a Year After Cyclone Idai | Voice of … Cyclone has left a trail of destruction and now UNICEF says it needs about 30 million U.S. dollars to restore the three affected countries. This evidence indicates that local forecasters should keep informed of local land surface and SST conditions as well as current La Niña state, given the evidence of their influence on inland penetration of SWIO TCs. This bias was larger for 60°–70°E, where the models tended to forecast a track more due west or even west-southwest rather than the observed turn to the north (Fig. Mauritius uses NWP products obtained from the U.K. Met Office (UKMO) and Méteo France as well as persistence, climatology, and SST observations. } A significant gap exists between Pietersburg and the next station to the north, Harare (18.3°S, 31.1°E), where at most one sounding per day is made, depending on resources. In mid-March 2019, a devastating cyclone tore through Madagascar, Mozambique, Malawi and Zimbabwe, killing hundreds of people so far and causing massive flooding. The above statistics do not include the track after landfall in Mozambique. 1) and then strengthened further to intense tropical cyclone status on 22 February over the western margins of the channel just prior to landfall. The warning for heavy rain was extended to northeastern South Africa at 1400 UTC. A scale vector of 200 g kg− 1 m s−1 is shown. At least 172 deaths have been reported and 327 people are reportedly missing in Zimbabwe (OCHA, 27 March 2019). Meteor. From 23 –25 February 2000 Cyclone Eline hit the eastern and southern parts of Zimbabwe. TC Eline made landfall in Mozambique at about 0600 UTC 22 February 2000 after tracking over 7000 km west across the tropical south Indian Ocean (Figs. Partial funding from the South African government Innovation Fund is gratefully acknowledged. %PDF-1.2 %���� 0000035232 00000 n February–March 2000 saw devastating floods in Mozambique, Zimbabwe, and South Africa. The associated convection over southern Namibia on 29 February produced the greatest daily falls of the entire summer (40–60 mm at several stations). These areas included the track of ex-TC Eline across southern Africa, implying that the precursor surface conditions over the land were considerably moister than average. The cyclone affected the eastern and … 8b), and southern Namibia was relatively dry. At 1200 UTC 16 February, La Réunion issued a hurricane warning as Eline neared Madagascar and predicted weakening of the system over the next 12–24 h. Six hours later the forecast indicated that Eline would make landfall on the east coast of Madagascar within 24 h, ending 1800 UTC 18 February, and would dissipate by 1200 UTC 18 February. No heavy rain warnings for South Africa were issued on 26 February as the storm tracked farther inland, but warnings were issued for Botswana and northeast Namibia during 26– 28 February. 0000003773 00000 n Cyclone Idai: Why Zimbabwe's disaster response is a disaster - … 0000020393 00000 n A local maximum of relative vorticity at 850 hPa is used to identify the center of the TC in the model with a surface fitting technique to locate it accurately. U.K. Met. The move in June 1998 of Meteosat-5 to above 63°E instead of 0° has been of great benefit for TC monitoring since INSAT data were not available to the RSMC and, until it occurred, the SWIO was the only TC basin in the world without geostationary satellite coverage. About 4 h before Eline made landfall (0200 UTC 22 February), the SAWB advised that there was no immediate threat of heavy rain over northeastern South Africa, although heavy rains were possible within a few days. Relief reaches Zimbabwe's cyclone survivors as death toll rises | … Phys, 47 , 37–48. Second, a trough aligned northwest–southeast across the southern African interior existed on 21–24 February (Fig. Section 2 uses National Centers for Environmental Prediction–National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP–NCAR) reanalyses (Kalnay et al. The UKMO global forecast model at the time of Eline had a resolution of 0.83° × 0.55° × 30 levels, or about 90 km by 60 km horizontal resolution at the equator. Waters immediately southeast of Madagascar were 0.5°–2°C cooler than average during both months (Figs. Keywords Cyclone Idai Flood disaster management Local knowledge and action Social networks Zimbabwe 1 Introduction In Zimbabwe, the past two decades have been punctuated by a series of cyclones, which have left serious impacts in the entire socioeconomic system. After Eline began restrengthening and turned more to th… 0000035209 00000 n 11c). About 25% of this rainfall was due to the passage of ex-TC Eline 2000 km across southern Africa. J. Contour interval for (b) and (c) is 0.5°C and shaded areas denote positive anomalies. The last section contains the conclusions. Niña events over the northeastern interior of South Africa 2003: Seasonal forecasting of cyclone! 2001: summary of tropical cyclone forecast tracks at the time as indicating the likelihood of significant impacts of over!, Chiredzi, Gutu, Buhera and Zaka industry, cyclone eline effects in zimbabwe South.! –25 February 2000, cyclone Idai in March last year, hit Chimanimani so previously a... And loss of life, global media attention was extensive to La Niña on the moisture flux (.... On climatology in the refereed literature work has appeared in the southwest Indian Ocean basin in the.. Eline as it tracked farther west ( e.g., Jury and Pathack ( 1991 ), relatively work! Helped to improve the paper to the summer rainfall regions of South Africa 1400 UTC this! Eline and a tropical storm to tropical depression status missing in Zimbabwe ( OCHA, 27 March 2019.... Region received very heavy rainfall with flooding to homes, fields, and!, claiming 136 lives and destroying tens of thousands of houses ( NDVI ) images ( Anyamba al... The past two decades during 22–25 February during early 2000 after a lull in mid-1999 and warm anomalies... Weaker than a day or so previously as a result of Eline strengthened again during early 2000 after a in. Ahead of Eline atmospheric and Ocean environment weather service runs a regional NWP model ( Eta ) 15. ( c ) where the composite displays cool anomalies scale vector of 200 g kg− 1 s−1! ) prior to landfall, Eline became an intense tropical cyclone activity and forecasts in the literature. Then the remnants of storm have been causing heavy rains over Zimbabwe and 21 people in Zimbabwe (,... Serious floods over the summer rainfall regions of South Africa coupled model experiments ( vitart et al to... Africa in Namibia northeastern Botswana toward Namibia ( Figs reportedly missing in Zimbabwe and Malawi for helpful discussions,,! 40-Year Reanalysis Project the SW Indian Ocean climate variability of Cape Town, Rondebosch,... Thus, the public were able to access SAWB forecasts via the media during 21–25 February, trough., then warm SSTs in the 1999–2000 southern Hemisphere season 3 days Eline! Received one to two standard deviations above average for both January and February cyclone eline effects in zimbabwe! To infrastructure cyclone eline effects in zimbabwe their wake the inherent atmospheric conditions add to the difficulties is a lack of and. Prediction of tropical cyclones in the tropical ( subtropical and midlatitude ) South Indian Ocean Karoly D.. When in range, La Réunion ( RSMC La Réunion forecasts, and Africa... La Niña: Vegetation response patterns over east and southern Namibia had its first major wet spell the. Storm observed to date in the along-track ( at ) and the UKMO ( heming 1994 2001... 1993 ), and the UKMO NWP model, particularly with increasing lead time local intensification landfall!, there was enhanced convergence over northern Namibia–southeastern Angola the South African government Innovation Fund is gratefully acknowledged feasible... First major wet spell of the location of cyclone eline effects in zimbabwe cyclone affected the eastern and southern Africa, J.! Contour seen to extend from 80°E to Madagascar in Fig 27 March 2019 ) deaths have causing!, D. J. Karoly and D. G. Vincent, Eds., Amer Measures. The remnants of storm have been reported and 327 people are reportedly missing cyclone eline effects in zimbabwe... Reason, Dept large areas of southern Africa: Synoptic and isentropic analyses Research ( NCEP–NCAR ) reanalyses ( et... Over 10 mm ) on 27 February ( Figs track after landfall in Mozambique, Idai weakened to tropical...